Newhome loan applications at 16 month high

Posted on July 9, 2009 by peter 
Filed under Australia Mortgage and Finance News · Tagged: , ,

home loanNEW home-loan applications soared to a 16-month high of 63,855 in May, but analysts warn the housing bubble will burst when lucrative government grants to first-home buyers are cut this year.

The average loan has risen 9.6 per cent in the past year to $266,900 on the back of soaring consumer confidence.

Owner-occupiers borrowed $17 billion, the highest monthly amount in 26 years, and a record level of first-home buyers accounted for more than 29 per cent of home loans.

Loans for new construction rose 8 per cent to 6334 – the highest level in seven years and 50 per cent higher than in December.

Erin Ronaldsen, residential research manager at real estate agency CBRE, said first-home buyers had helped prop up the market.

“In all likelihood the withdrawal of the first-home owners grant boost at the end of December, and state-based measures in July 2010, will have a dampening effect on the sub-$500,000 market,” she said.

“We expect falls could reach 10 per cent from the peak in some areas, depending on local market conditions.”

She said Victorian first-home buyers were getting better value than the national average.

The average value of the loan taken out by Australian first-home buyers has risen $20,400 since the introduction of the boost in October, but Victorian loans have risen an average $10,800.

CommSec economist Savanth Sebastian said almost 20,000 first-home buyers took out loans in May and banks were the big winners from the lending boom, writing almost 92 per cent of all loans.

“Consumer sentiment is well and truly out of the doldrums. The combination of rate cuts, fiscal stimulus and the perception that the worst is behind us has seen a substantial shift by consumers to being more optimistic about the future.”

But it all came back to job security, he said.

“With unemployment expected to rise in the next year, sentiment is likely to retreat from this exuberant level.”

Housing Industry Association senior economist Ben Phillips said the number of loans for new dwellings had risen for nine consecutive months, and he pointed to a modest recovery emerging for residential construction.